UCL Asiatic Affairs

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The Impact of the US election for India

“Greatest Comeback in Political History” was how India’s largest-selling English-language newspaper regarded the victory of Donald Trump over Kamala Harris in the 2024 US elections. Despite the best wishes from Harris’s maternal grandfather’s village of Thulasendrapuram in Tamil Nadu, she failed to defeat the former 45th president in his quest to regain power. Thus, Trump won 295-226 (as of this moment in writing, the races in Nevada and Arizona haven’t been called but will make no difference since Trump has already surpassed the 270 to win). What does Trump’s re-election mean for India, which is now a rising power on the global stage and pivotal to the extent of American influence in Asia?

With Modi’s congratulatory message to India, it is clear that he and the ruling BJP want a clear and friendly partnership with Donald Trump and wish to cooperate on various common issues as listed in his post. The election has already impacted Indian Markets, with shares in technology experiencing an increase due to the end of electoral uncertainty and belief in a stronger US dollar as Trump often tends towards higher interest rates. However, India-US relations, thus far, have been strong across both parties, thriving across the last five presidencies, as a result of what Al-Jazeera describes as three pillars, which view India as a competitor against China, a key growing economy and important in having the world’s largest democracy. Modi does have some things to be happy about the Trump victory - for one, he is likely to be less critical of any supposed human rights and democratic violations his administration may infringe on and there is some degree of familiarity with having a self-styled bromance with Trump in his first presidency, leading Trump to even label Modi as a friend in a podcast in the run-up to the 2024 election. However, there are fair concerns about Trump’s policy and the unpredictability he will bring to the White House. The former issue can be split into two key areas – economy and foreign policy, where the new American government will be protectionist and isolationist.

Trump’s proposed policy is suggested to harm a fifth of India’s exports, with a plan to increase tariffs that would affect the IT, pharmaceutical and textile industries to make sure that America remains first, which would likely lead to counter-tariffs from the Indian government, similar to that of the EU if the tariffs were to go ahead. This would have a lengthy and deepening effect on domestic businesses on both sides, with trade between the two nations estimated to be worth $190 billion. However, India might, according to a Barclays report, face a limited impact because of its domestically oriented economy, yet they may face greater challenges depending on which goods Trump decides to place his tariffs on. On the other hand, Trump’s isolationist foreign policy would have further ramifications for New Delhi, which could be labelled as just a simple speeding-up of American isolationism beginning under Obama’s presidency. His pledge to end the war in Ukraine is a prime example of this, nevertheless, this will benefit India by his liking of Putin, leading to an easing off of the Anti-Russian sentiment that was prevalent in Washington, meaning that India will no longer have to toe the line when dealing with Putin’s Russia, benefiting them economically with a passage for more Russian crude supply. However, his return may consolidate India’s geopolitical position by increasing engagement with the Quad – a grouping of the USA, India, Japan and Australia, to counter Chinese influence in the region, thus his administration may provide a boost to this fairly militarily strong alliance. Furthermore, Trump has also expressed pro-Hindu sentiments, hence the Hindu-nationalist BJP will delight in his expected harsh stance against Islamic fundamentalism. In conclusion, Trump’s re-election presents a myriad of opportunities and consequences for the recently re-elected BJP government, with the revival of a friend, yet this reboot brings a great deal of unpredictability for India and the world.

Bibliography

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/us-presidential-elections-trump-triumphs-in-a-comeback-for-the-ages/articleshow/115018726.cms 

https://news.sky.com/story/us-election-the-tiny-village-in-india-which-is-cheering-kamala-harris-on-as-she-aims-for-the-white-house-13245497 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-07/india-market-buzz-cyclicals-regain-spotlight-as-trump-returns?leadSource=uverify%20wall 

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-will-be-more-isolationist-whoever-wins-election-india-foreign-minister-says-2024-11-06/ 

https://www.dw.com/en/india-us-ties-donald-trump-narendra-modi-relationship-china-trade-immigration/a-70723661

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-11-07/us-election-what-trump-s-return-as-president-means-for-india-modi

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https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/11/1/us-election-who-do-world-leaders-prefer-for-president-harris-or-trump