The Republic of China (R.O.C), commonly known as Taiwan or Chinese Taipei in the Olympics, is a country without full international recognition, yet it has garnered significant attention on the global stage as a crucial political pawn between two superpowers- China and United States. The ongoing debate over the tendency of unification with China versus the pursuit of independence permeates all levels of society, from political parties and workplaces to schools and even family discussions. For Taiwanese people, this issue extends beyond being a subject of international discourse - it represents the fight to safeguard democracy and protect individual freedoms.

Tensions around Taiwan have escalated following President William Lai’s (賴清德) national speech on October 10th. Even before the speech, China’s government expressed frustration and discontent with both President Lai and former President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), accusing them of undermining the “One China” policy and destabilizing the Taiwan Strait. However, the recent implementation of China’s so-called “anaconda strategy,” as analyzed by The Economist, marks a shift in both scale and scope from previous maneuvers. Prior to Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, Chinese military drills were primarily concentrated in the western and southern Bashi Channel regions. Now, however, these operations have extended to target the two secret hangars in Taiwan’s eastern region, complicating efforts to evade a potential strike by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Additionally, since Lai’s succession, the number of PLA Air Force incursions has increased fivefold, while PLA Navy vessel activity has nearly doubled, further intensifying the military pressure on Taiwan.

In terms of Taiwanese opinion on the National Speech, there is a strong consensus across various demographics, with 70.8% of respondents agreeing that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) does not have the authority to represent Taiwan. This agreement spans different levels of education, age groups, occupations, and political affiliations. The data comes from research conducted by the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation (TPOF) , based on a survey of 1,077 individuals (refer to Graph 1). However, when it comes to confidence in Taiwan’s military capabilities, there is less optimism. A slight majority of 50.3% of respondents expressed a lack of belief in the military’s ability to successfully defend Taiwan in the event of a direct military confrontation with China. (refer to Graph 2). Given these concerns, the upcoming U.S. presidential election may prove pivotal in determining the future of military support for Taiwan, which could significantly impact Taiwan’s defense strategy and overall security.

In conclusion, Taiwan’s struggle for international recognition and its quest to safeguard democracy amidst growing Chinese pressure is at a critical juncture. The increasing military activities and strategic shifts by China, coupled with Taiwan’s internal debates on independence and unification, underscore the fragile state of cross-strait relations. While a significant portion of Taiwanese people reject China’s authority over the island, concerns over military readiness add to the complexity of the situation. As Taiwan faces rising tensions, the outcome of the forthcoming U.S. presidential election may play a pivotal role in determining the extent of military support from the United States. This will ultimately shape Taiwan’s defense strategies and influence the island’s future security and sovereignty.