‘21st Century Silk Road’: Carving Central Asia’s Regional Future

Central Asia, a sparsely populated group of 5 former Soviet republics, has recently come in the middle of a silent standoff between 2 nuclear powers. China, a rapidly expanding manufacturing powerhouse, and Russia, a country alienated by the West due to its invasion of Ukraine, are both looking to Central Asia to expand their respective zones of influence. While the two global superpowers are not strictly speaking allies, they are at times united in their opposition to the USA. 

The five presidents have been invited to the annual parade held in Moscow to commemorate Victory Day, a holiday held in all former Soviet countries. Later, they participated in the first C+C5, a summit held between China and Central Asian countries. At this meeting, Xi Jinping buttered the new leaders up with a plethora of trade deals and investments, accumulating a value of around 3.8 billion dollars. In exchange, China received full support of its Belt and Road initiative, a corridor of urban developments connecting Asia, Europe and Africa. This project was termed by Xi as the “21st century Silk Road”. The truth is that Central Asia is experiencing instability like never before. Kazakhstan has had its most violent revolution yet, Kyrgyzstan has ousted 3 of its presidents while maintaining strained relations with neighboring Tajikistan over a territorial dispute. So getting all these changing republics on one page is a feat China accomplished which Russia could not. 

Central Asia is not only a vast stretch of land in the heart of Eurasia but also a huge source of natural gas, oil, uranium and metals, holding critical importance toward China’s manufacturing-based economy. China was capitalizing on Turkmenistan’s rich natural gas reserves by building a pipeline that connected the two countries in 2009, ending the long-term deal between the small nation and Russia. The importance of this relationship goes both ways: China has become Central Asia’s largest trading partner in 2020 by amassing trade of 70 billion dollars, compared to their trade with Russia at 40 billion. 

The truth is that Russia is losing its grip on its former allies, especially with its invasion of Ukraine. Favor of Russia among Kazakhs has dropped from 50% to 17%; meanwhile, in Kysgyzstan, it fell from 65% to 45%. This smaller decrease can be explained by Kyrgyzstan’s overwhelming economic reliance on Russia, as most of its migrant workers are based in the country. The imposition of sanctions in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has made basic transactions extremely difficult for Russians, forcing them to transfer their money to Kazakh and Kygyz banks. Moscow is becoming increasingly dependent on Central Asia to outmaneuver sanctions by making transactions using roubles and even gold. 

Central Asian countries have been reaping the benefits of this shift in influence between China and Russia. Cheaper and high-quality Chinese products are hitting the Kazakh markets, ranging from cosmetics to electric vehicles. Kazakh, Uzbek, and Tajik currencies have risen against the dollar, and annual wage growth has skyrocketed to 10% in Uzbekistan and 7% in Kazakhstan, higher than most countries of the G7. 

There is a complex and dynamic relationship between Central Asian countries and the two giants, not to mention their own changing internal political landscapes. Whether or not Russia and China achieve an equilibrium in this region, the fact remains that these countries are becoming highly individualistic, and it will take a lot to gain the favor of the collective region.