*The Pakistan-Afghanistan border in North Waziristan*

By the 28th of February 2025, the Pakistani government will have ‘relocated’ all Afghan refugees who are staying illegally in Islamabad and Rawalpindi. Those with documentation that permits them to go to a third-party nation will have to leave the two cities by the 31st of March. Legal refugees with “UNHCR-granted proof of registration cards”, amounting to approximately 1.5 million, are allowed to stay until the 30th of June 2025. For what reasons has this situation emerged? Will the deportations of Afghan refugees continue? If so, what nations are willing to let these refugees in? These questions are the prompts for this discussion as we look at the past, present and future of Afghan refugees in Pakistan.

Why is Pakistan deporting refugees?

The first question to look at is how this situation came about in the first place, which resulted in the Pakistani Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif, announcing the multi-stage deportation plan towards the end of last month. The reasoning from the Prime Minister is simple - security purposes. After the Taliban took back control over Afghanistan in 2021, Pakistan has experienced an increased number of cross-border conflicts with the Taliban and other terrorist groups in the region, along with a recent rise in crime that directly correlates with what the Voice of America describes as a sense of “increased militancy to Afghan nationals”. The Pakistani government has expressed frustration with these minor disputes, calling on the UN to provide more support and aid to tackle cross-border terrorism, along with internal terrorism, where attacks in January 2025 increased by 42% from the previous month, particularly in the neighbouring provinces of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. These acts of border violence, according to figures in the Pakistani government, are the worst in a decade.

*Terrorist incidents in Pakistan between 2022-2023*

Who are affected and what concerns are being raised?

Hence, these deportations represent the final phases of Pakistan’s plan to remove many foreign refugees instigated by a series of policies dating back to 2023. Although the Pakistani government has claimed these policies are not directed at Afghan nationals, they make up most of the foreigners targeted by such policies. After all, it is estimated that half a million refugees were sent back to Afghanistan in 2024. As a result, with the beginning of this new-stage plan, the United Nations Refugee Agency has acknowledged the policies of Pakistan and is expressing a need for further information about the deportation programme, whilst retaining a commitment to support all Afghan refugees. The organisation has expressed additional concerns over the potential impact on minorities (ethnic and religious), journalists and human rights activists along with those associated with the arts. Meanwhile, the Pakistani government remains firm on its stance, highlighting that they believed that the presence of Afghan refugees in their nation was always an intermediate step as they head towards another country. This has notably drawn criticism from the Taliban-led government, who stress the continued mistreatment of Afghan refugees and highlight the short timeframe for those refugees to either return or find a new destination and the lack of coordination between the two nations.

*Afghan women wearing burqas stand in front of a truck carrying their belongings as they return home in Nowshera, Pakistan*

What is next for Afghan refugees?

Therefore, what countries are being suggested to take in the 40,000 refugees who will be deported back to Afghanistan by the 31st of March if they cannot move residence? One potential destination for about 20,000 of them would have been the United States, however President Trump, during his first month in office has paused all US refugee schemes, leaving these refugees stuck in limbo and fearful of reprisal from the Taliban government. After all, many of the refugees are affiliated with the US and NATO forces that were involved in the unsuccessful war - some of those unable to claim asylum have been tortured or killed by the Taliban in retaliation for their actions. However, the Pakistani government is currently working with other Western governments, such as the British government, to ensure a smooth process to relocate the refugees. Simultaneously, Pakistani intelligence agencies are monitoring the movements of these refugees to ensure they do not become invisible to the state and that when the time comes to deport them, they can do so easily and quickly. Hence, a continuous shadow looms over those refugees as they prepare to leave the capital for a return to Taliban-controlled Afghanistan or a new life in the West.