NOA Episode 2.2 A Deep Dive into the Socio-Economic Impacts of Coronavirus
Our topic for this two-part podcast is a snapshot of the socio-economic impact of COVID-19 in East Asia, the South East Asia region, South Asia and the Middle East. In this episode, we will be looking at the Middle East instead and some of the areas we will be focusing on including the diplomatic developments between countries in the region with the US over trade and exports, the fall of oil prices in the Gulf Cooperation Council region (or GCC for short), Palestinian and Israelian cooperation in their efforts to contain the coronavirus, and also looking closer at regions like Yemen, riddled with years of intrastate wars and refugee crises, and how they are coping under the pressures of the pandemic.
Image Source: Aly Song/Reuters
The Middle East
What, in your opinion, is the epicentre of the crisis in the region, and how are the costs of the crisis being tackled?
Iran is arguably the epicentre of the crisis in the Middle-East, with about 76,389 cases as of now. To understand the effect of coronavirus on Iran it's important to be familiar with the sanctions imposed by the US. Under the Trump administration, the US withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal and imposed harsh sanctions on Iran, as a result of which Iran focused on boosting domestic capacity, while attempting to boost non-oil exports- such as face masks to China recently. Oil exports naturally plunged drastically, the economy contracted by an estimated 9.5% last year, the Rial lost half its value and inflation soared at 40%. Most banks are reluctant to engage in any dealings with Iran due to the fear of retaliation, and this has made securing specialist imported medicines and equipment for coronavirus a difficult task. As the death toll climbed in the country, the US imposed further sanctions a few weeks ago again, although exceptions for medical and humanitarian aid are present.
Image Source: Ozan Kose/AFP
Considering these economic costs and Iran’s fragile relations with the GCC, what is the impact of the crisis on leadership and diplomatic affairs?
Now, the Iranian leadership faces the key dilemma of imposing a lockdown a bit more severely- and while access to worst-hit regions has been severely restricted, shrines have been closed and a social campaign to promote social distancing has been carried out- the fear of economic implications have prevented a prolonged nationwide lockdown. However another key, and much more optimistic, diplomatic development has taken place as some members of the GCC have expressed solidarity with Iran in containing the virus, with UAE, Qatar and Kuwait sending aid. While it is unlikely, a similar move by Saudi Arabia could help reduce tensions between Tehran and Riyadh.
How has coronavirus impacted the GCC region?
GCC countries were relatively quick to implement stringent controls and unlike the other countries discussed so far, the public healthcare system is efficient and accessible, which would make it much easier to contain the virus. However, the development in recent weeks which would hit the GCC hard is the oil price plunge, as the resultant energy revenue accounts for a huge share in their budgets- particularly worrying for Oman and Bahrain considering their large public debts. All countries in the GCC have unveiled extensive relief packages to support private firms. Now I had briefly outlined an optimistic diplomatic outlook between the GCC and Iran, but there is another side to the coin as well. Saudi Arabia and Bahrain have strongly spoken against Iran’s response to the Covid-19, and there is a widespread belief that the virus was imported from Iran or Iraq, via Shia citizens. In response, Saudi on the 8th of March had placed Al-Qatif- a Shia majority region- under lockdown. This could further alienate Shia citizens.
Image Source: Hebron/Reuters
Now Israel and Palestine are diplomatic loggerheads as well. How have they been tackling the crisis?
If there is one thing the coronavirus outbreak has made clear more than ever, it is the intertwined nature of Palestine and Israel. Despite their political differences Israel, the PNA and Hamas are forced to cooperate and work together to contain the outbreak, as the virus could easily spillover from one region to another. Special mechanisms have been set up to update Israeli and Palestinian officials on the virus’s developments as and when they arise. However, Palestinians still face unnecessary obstructions to secure vital medical equipment due to Israel, which was recently condemned by the World Health Organisation. Currently, Israel has 12,200 cases, and the State of Palestine has 291 cases.
How have Israel and Palestine independently coped with the situation?
Israel has taken one of the most aggressive responses to the coronavirus outbreak with swift containment measures, and the Prime Minister authorised the country’s security agency to use previously undisclosed cell phone data to retrace movements of those who have been tested positive and identify those who crossed paths with the patient and should be quarantined accordingly. This has unsurprisingly led to backlash as well, as concerns regarding civil liberties have been raised. The PNA has taken measures as well, it coordinated with the Israeli military to put Bethlehem on a lockdown and a relatively strong support for the Prime Minister’s handling of the outbreak has grown.
Where do you think the threat is the greatest between the West Bank, Gaza and Israel?
Several key elements of economic threats are mutually dependent as well. The Palestinian economy is heavily dependent on the approximately 95,000 Palestinian labourers commuting to and working in Israel daily, and access to cheap labour has traditionally been important for the Israeli economy. However, it is evident that it is in Gaza that the threat is the greatest, and the UN mission is now focusing on coordinating Israel and the Hamas (who exercise de facto control over Gaza) and working with them to develop contingency plans. The Gaza strip is the most densely populated area in the world, its healthcare infrastructure is absolutely broken and electricity supplies are extremely restricted- often available for less than half a day. There are less than 100 ventilators for a population of almost 2 million. Moreover, social distancing is luxury people simply can’t access. Refugee camps are crowded with people who have no homes to return to, elderly cannot be isolated from the rest because multiple generations live packed under one roof, and even though the region has seen only 13 official infections as of now global healthcare authorities are already expecting the worst. Most believe the actual number of infections is much higher. And these issues echo across the most vulnerable sections of societies everywhere- the Yemen refugee camps, the Rohingya refugee camp, the Dharavi slum. As for Gaza, it simply does not have the resources to tackle Covid-19 on its on.
How is the situation in the Yemen refugee camps?
Yemen’s healthcare system, to put it lightly, is collapsed. It has entered the sixth year of a bloody civil war between pro-government forces and the Houthi armed movement. Known and occupied medical facilities have been routinely attacked, looted of supplies and medical personnel have been subject to assault in the past. As a result, there are only 10 healthcare workers for 10,000 people in the country. There is only one officially confirmed case right now. To tackle this issue UN Secretary General called for a ceasefire and coordination between all parties, as a failure to do so can risk the lives of potentially millions.
Image Source: AFP
Haven’t the Levant along with Iraq particularly been long crippled with political and economic crises?
Yeah, and in particular it is Syria, Lebanon and of course Iraq where the situations are concerning. The number of official cases in Iraq is 1400, in Syria, it is 29 and Lebanon it is 658. All these three countries have very close relations with Iran, in fact, the disease is believed to be introduced in Iraq and Lebanon via people coming from Iran.
It seems like they also lack a clear political leadership and effective state capacity.
Exactly. State healthcare institutions, particularly in Iraq and Syria, are severely unequipped to deal with the outbreak and an absence of sufficient aid paints a rather grim picture. In Syria, the government long denied the presence of the virus in the state and only in the past few weeks confirmed a handful of cases. This contradicts the travel history of several patients tested positive in other parts of the globe, such as in Pakistan where 8 out of 14 people tested in the Sindh region on the 14th of March had travelled to Syria. The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported cases on the 10th of March but the first official case was confirmed only on the 22nd.
Would you say there are particular groups that are at the greatest risk?
There is a group of people who are arguably at greater risk- the refugees and the displaced. They live in close, crowded and not the most sanitary camps, which makes it a herculean task to follow traditional guidelines to avoid Covid-19. Coupled with the fact that they are not the strongest physically, the consequences of an outbreak in these settlements are extremely worrying.
As the ongoing coronavirus pandemic sweeps across the globe, the economic impact it has caused is beyond imagination. The public health crisis has now become an economic crisis, and if it worsens, it could become a political crisis. And within Asia and across the world, it is the poor, the refugees and the displaced which face the greatest threat under this outbreak.
Podcast Hosts: Bernice Ng and Prisha Bhandari
Editor: Angela Zhou